Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
Criciuma
Novorizontino
November 14, 2026 at 20:30 · Estadio Heriberto Hülse
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Criciuma vs Novorizontino prediction and betting tip for this Brazil Serie B match, kicking off November 14, 2026 at 20:30 at Estadio Heriberto Hülse. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 88% confidence.
Criciuma vs Novorizontino Preview
Criciuma host Novorizontino in the Brazil Serie B (matchday 38) on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 GMT+0100 at Estadio Heriberto Hülse in Chrissyuma.
Criciuma are 4th in the table with 62 points from 37 games (18-8-11), while Novorizontino sit 1st on 70 points. Novorizontino have a 8-point advantage. At home Criciuma have won 11 of 18; Novorizontino have won 8 of 18 on the road.
Criciuma have three wins and two defeats in their last 5 league games (W-W-L-W-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Novorizontino have four wins and one draw in their last 5 league games (W-D-W-W-W), averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Criciuma have won 2, Novorizontino 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.0 goals per game. The most recent, in July 2026, finished Novorizontino 0-1 Criciuma.
Criciuma average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 17 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-2-1. Novorizontino average 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 13 clean sheets and 8 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Robson leads Novorizontino's scoring with 16 goals and 5 assists.
Bookmakers make Novorizontino the favourites: Criciuma 2.75, draw 3.00, Novorizontino 2.60 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15 and under at 1.67. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.5 goals a game.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 37 | 20 | 10 | 7 | +34 | 70 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 62 |
Season stats
| Criciuma | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 37 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 18 / 8 / 11 | 20 / 10 / 7 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 38 (1.0) | 66 (1.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 31 (0.8) | 32 (0.9) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 17 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 10 | 8 |
| Longest winning run | 6 | 5 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 5-1 |
| Usual formation | 3-4-2-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- Robson 16 goals · 5 assists
- Romulo 11 goals · 9 assists
- Matheus Bianqui 7 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.95 – 0.90 · most likely score 0-0 · data quality 95/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 35.4% | 33.6% | 2.75 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 32.3% | 30.8% | 3.00 | -3.1% |
| Novorizontino win | 32.3% | 35.6% | 2.60 | -16.0% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 67.7% | 64.4% | 1.50 | +1.5% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 64.6% | 66.4% | 1.40 | -9.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.2% | 68.8% | 1.36 | -24.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.3% | 43.7% | 2.15 | -39.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 56.3% | 1.67 | +19.7% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 88.3% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +10.4% |
| Both teams to score | 36.4% | 50.0% | 1.83 | -33.4% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 13 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.0 goals and recent form points to 2.5 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Criciuma
WWLWL
1.0 scored · 0.6 conceded per game
Novorizontino
WDWWW
2.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Criciuma wins 1 draws 3 Novorizontino wins last 6 meetings
- Novorizontino0 - 1Criciuma Serie B
- Criciuma2 - 0Novorizontino Serie B
- Novorizontino1 - 1Criciuma Serie B
- Novorizontino2 - 0Criciuma Serie B
- Criciuma0 - 1Novorizontino Serie B
- Novorizontino3 - 1Criciuma Serie B
Statistics: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
