Londrina vs Nautico Recife
Brazil Serie B
Londrina
Nautico Recife
November 11, 2026 at 23:00 · Estadio do Cafe
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Londrina vs Nautico Recife prediction and betting tip for this Brazil Serie B match, kicking off November 11, 2026 at 23:00 at Estadio do Cafe. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.18), 83% confidence.
Londrina vs Nautico Recife Preview
Londrina host Nautico Recife in the Brazil Serie B (matchday 38) on Wednesday 11 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 GMT+0100 at Estadio do Cafe in Londrina. Helena de Siqueira is the referee.
Londrina are 18th in the table with 32 points from 37 games (8-8-21), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points. Nautico Recife have a 14-point advantage. At home Londrina have won 5 of 18; Nautico Recife have won 3 of 18 on the road.
Londrina have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-W-L-L-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Nautico Recife have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-L-W-L), averaging 0.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Londrina have won 4, Nautico Recife 2, with 0 draws and an average of 3.0 goals per game. The most recent, in July 2026, finished Nautico Recife 2-1 Londrina.
Londrina average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 13 games without scoring, usually in a 4-1-4-1. Nautico Recife average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets and 15 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Bruno Santos leads Londrina's scoring with 11 goals and 3 assists; Vinícius leads Nautico Recife's scoring with 9 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Londrina the favourites: Londrina 1.60, draw 3.90, Nautico Recife 5.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.65 and under at 2.20. Both teams to score: yes 1.73, no 2.00.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 46 |
| 18 | Londrina | 37 | 8 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 32 |
Season stats
| Londrina | Nautico Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 37 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 8 / 8 / 21 | 12 / 10 / 15 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 45 (1.2) | 40 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 58 (1.6) | 49 (1.3) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 13 | 15 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-1-4-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- Bruno Santos 11 goals · 3 assists
- Vinícius 9 goals · 3 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 10 Nov 2026, 13:58. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.83 – 1.35 · most likely score 1-1 · data quality 99/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina win | 48.7% | 58.8% | 1.60 | -22.1% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 24.1% | 3.90 | -10.9% |
| Nautico Recife win | 28.5% | 17.1% | 5.50 | +56.6% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 71.5% | 82.9% | 1.12 | -19.9% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 51.3% | 41.2% | 2.38 | +22.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | 79.2% | 1.18 | -2.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 57.1% | 1.65 | +1.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 42.9% | 2.20 | -15.3% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 60.8% | 62.5% | 1.50 | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 53.6% | 1.73 | +7.5% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 10 Nov 2026, 16:28, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.6 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.0 goals and recent form points to 2.6 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Londrina
DWLLL
1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
Nautico Recife
LDLWL
0.2 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Londrina wins 0 draws 2 Nautico Recife wins last 6 meetings
- Nautico Recife2 - 1Londrina Serie B
- Londrina0 - 2Nautico Recife Serie C
- Londrina3 - 2Nautico Recife Serie C
- Nautico Recife1 - 2Londrina Serie B
- Londrina2 - 0Nautico Recife Serie B
- Nautico Recife1 - 2Londrina Serie B
Statistics: API-Football · updated 10 Nov 2026, 13:58. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
