Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport
Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Almere City FC
Helmond Sport
November 14, 2026 at 20:00 · Yanmar Stadion
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Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport prediction and betting tip for this Netherlands Eerste Divisie match, kicking off November 14, 2026 at 20:00 at Yanmar Stadion. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.14), 86% confidence.
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport Preview
Almere City FC host Helmond Sport in the Netherlands Eerste Divisie (matchday 15) on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 GMT+0100 at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.
Almere City FC have three wins and two defeats in their last 5 league games (W-L-L-W-W), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Helmond Sport have one win and four defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-L-W-L), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Almere City FC have won 2, Helmond Sport 3, with 1 draw and an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent, in February 2026, finished Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport.
Almere City FC average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 5 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Helmond Sport average 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-4-2.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: F. Druijf leads Almere City FC's scoring with 9 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Almere City FC the favourites: Almere City FC 1.45, draw 4.75, Helmond Sport 5.75 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.40 and under at 2.88. Both teams to score: yes 1.50, no 2.50.
Our prediction: Almere City FC or draw (1X). The model gives Almere City FC or a draw a 90% chance, Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Almere City FC favourites at 1.45.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Season stats
| Almere City FC | Helmond Sport | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 14 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 9 / 1 / 4 | 3 / 3 / 8 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 30 (2.1) | 25 (1.8) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 14 (1.0) | 31 (2.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.7 / 2.5 | 2.0 / 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 3 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 4-2 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Top scorers
- F. Druijf 9 goals · 3 assists
No player in the league's top scorers list.
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.29 – 0.96 · most likely score 2-0 · data quality 95/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC win | 67.2% | 64.2% | 1.45 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 18.4% | 19.6% | 4.75 | -12.6% |
| Helmond Sport win | 14.4% | 16.2% | 5.75 | -17.4% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 85.6% | 83.8% | 1.14 | -2.4% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 32.8% | 35.8% | 2.62 | -14.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | 85.4% | 1.11 | -7.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 67.3% | 1.40 | -11.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | 32.7% | 2.88 | +6.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59.2% | 51.5% | 1.80 | +6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 62.5% | 1.50 | -16.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 13 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Almere City FC or draw (1X) — The model gives Almere City FC or a draw a 90% chance, Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Almere City FC favourites at 1.45.
Form (last 5)
Almere City FC
WLLWW
2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Helmond Sport
LLLWL
2.0 scored · 3.0 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Almere City FC wins 1 draws 3 Helmond Sport wins last 6 meetings
- Almere City FC0 - 1Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie
- Helmond Sport2 - 1Almere City FC Eerste Divisie
- Almere City FC0 - 0Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie
- Helmond Sport3 - 0Almere City FC Eerste Divisie
- Almere City FC3 - 0Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie
- Helmond Sport1 - 2Almere City FC Eerste Divisie
Statistics: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
