Port Vale vs Accrington ST
England League Two
Port Vale
Accrington ST
November 14, 2026 at 16:00 · Vale Park
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Port Vale vs Accrington ST prediction and betting tip for this England League Two match, kicking off November 14, 2026 at 16:00 at Vale Park. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 85% confidence.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST Preview
Port Vale host Accrington ST in the England League Two (matchday 15) on Saturday 14 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 GMT+0100 at Vale Park in Stoke-On-Trent.
Port Vale are 19th in the table with 15 points from 12 games (4-3-5), while Accrington ST sit 9th on 19 points. Accrington ST have a 4-point advantage. At home Port Vale have won 4 of 6; Accrington ST have won 1 of 7 on the road.
Port Vale have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (W-W-D-L-W), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Accrington ST have two wins and three draws in their last 5 league games (D-W-D-W-D), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Port Vale have won 3, Accrington ST 1, with 2 draws and an average of 3.3 goals per game. The most recent, in October 2025, finished Accrington ST 0-2 Port Vale.
Port Vale average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 3-5-2. Accrington ST average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-1-2.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: J. Woods leads Accrington ST's scoring with 7 goals and 1 assist.
Bookmakers make Port Vale the favourites: Port Vale 1.95, draw 3.30, Accrington ST 3.60 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.08 and under at 1.73. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.3 goals and recent form points to 2.5 goals a game.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
Season stats
| Port Vale | Accrington ST | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 12 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 4 / 3 / 5 | 4 / 7 / 3 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 10 (0.8) | 23 (1.6) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 14 (1.2) | 17 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.3 / 0.3 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 3-5-2 | 3-4-1-2 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- J. Woods 7 goals · 1 assist
- C. Caton 5 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.06 – 0.99 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 36.5% | 46.9% | 1.95 | -28.7% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.7% | 3.30 | +0.3% |
| Accrington ST win | 33.0% | 25.4% | 3.60 | +19.0% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 67.0% | 74.6% | 1.28 | -14.3% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 63.5% | 53.1% | 1.80 | +14.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.6% | 71.0% | 1.33 | -19.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.6% | 45.4% | 2.08 | -30.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 66.4% | 54.6% | 1.73 | +14.9% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 84.9% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 50.0% | 1.83 | -25.0% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 35%, draw 35%, away 30%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 13 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.4 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 3.3 goals and recent form points to 2.5 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Port Vale
WWDLW
1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Accrington ST
DWDWD
2.0 scored · 0.6 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
3 Port Vale wins 2 draws 1 Accrington ST wins last 6 meetings
- Accrington ST0 - 2Port Vale EFL Trophy
- Port Vale2 - 1Accrington ST League Two
- Accrington ST2 - 2Port Vale League Two
- Accrington ST3 - 0Port Vale League One
- Port Vale1 - 1Accrington ST League One
- Port Vale5 - 1Accrington ST FA Cup
Statistics: API-Football · updated 13 Nov 2026, 00:27. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
