Leixoes vs Chaves
Portugal Segunda Liga
Leixoes
Chaves
November 15, 2026 at 19:00 · Estadio do Mar
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Leixoes vs Chaves prediction and betting tip for this Portugal Segunda Liga match, kicking off November 15, 2026 at 19:00 at Estadio do Mar. Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals (odds 1.28), 89% confidence.
Leixoes vs Chaves Preview
Leixoes host Chaves in the Portugal Segunda Liga (matchday 11) on Sunday 15 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 GMT+0100 at Estadio do Mar in Matosinhos. Claudio Pereira is the referee.
Leixoes are 12th in the table with 11 points from 10 games (3-2-5), while Chaves sit 17th on 8 points. Only 3 points separate them. At home Leixoes have won 2 of 5; Chaves have won 0 of 5 on the road.
Leixoes have two draws and three defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-L-L-D), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Chaves have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-W-L-L), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Leixoes have won 1, Chaves 1, with 4 draws and an average of 1.3 goals per game. The most recent, in May 2026, finished Chaves 1-2 Leixoes.
Leixoes average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-4-2. Chaves average 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-3-3.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: André Rodrigues leads Chaves's scoring with 1 goal.
Bookmakers make Leixoes the favourites: Leixoes 1.90, draw 3.40, Chaves 3.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.90 and under at 1.90. Both teams to score: yes 1.73, no 2.00.
Our prediction: Over 1.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.1 goals, recent form points to 3.4 goals a game and bookmakers price over 1.5 at 1.28.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Leixoes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Chaves | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
Season stats
| Leixoes | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 10 | 10 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 3 / 2 / 5 | 2 / 2 / 6 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 13 (1.3) | 11 (1.1) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 17 (1.7) | 21 (2.1) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- André Rodrigues 1 goal · 0 assists
- Costinha 0 goals · 1 assist
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 14 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 2.04 – 1.67 · most likely score 2-1 · data quality 90/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes win | 46.8% | 47.6% | 1.90 | -11.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | 26.6% | 3.40 | -27.9% |
| Chaves win | 31.9% | 25.8% | 3.50 | +11.8% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 68.1% | 74.2% | 1.25 | -14.9% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 53.2% | 52.4% | 1.80 | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.5% | 73.2% | 1.28 | +13.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 50.0% | 1.90 | +36.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | 50.0% | 1.90 | -46.2% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 49.1% | 71.0% | 1.33 | -34.6% |
| Both teams to score | 70.7% | 53.6% | 1.73 | +22.2% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 35%, draw 35%, away 30%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 14 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 3.1 goals, recent form points to 3.4 goals a game and bookmakers price over 1.5 at 1.28.
Form (last 5)
Leixoes
DLLLD
1.0 scored · 2.2 conceded per game
Chaves
LDWLL
1.2 scored · 2.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
1 Leixoes wins 4 draws 1 Chaves wins last 6 meetings
- Chaves1 - 2Leixoes Segunda Liga
- Leixoes0 - 1Chaves Segunda Liga
- Leixoes0 - 0Chaves Segunda Liga
- Chaves0 - 0Leixoes Segunda Liga
- Leixoes1 - 1Chaves Segunda Liga
- Chaves1 - 1Leixoes Segunda Liga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 14 Nov 2026, 00:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
