Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Colombia Primera A
Deportivo Cali
Deportes Tolima
November 12, 2026 at 22:00 · Estadio Deportivo Cali
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Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off November 12, 2026 at 22:00 at Estadio Deportivo Cali. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 90% confidence.
Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima Preview
Deportivo Cali host Deportes Tolima in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 19) on Thursday 12 November 2026, kick-off 22:00 GMT+0100 at Estadio Deportivo Cali in Palmira.
Deportivo Cali are 3rd in the table with 34 points from 18 games (9-7-2), while Deportes Tolima sit 9th on 26 points. Deportivo Cali have a 8-point advantage. At home Deportivo Cali have won 5 of 8; Deportes Tolima have won 3 of 9 on the road.
Deportivo Cali have two wins and three draws in their last 5 league games (D-W-D-W-D), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. Deportes Tolima have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-L-L-W-W), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Deportivo Cali have won 0, Deportes Tolima 3, with 3 draws and an average of 2.3 goals per game. The most recent, in May 2026, finished Deportes Tolima 1-1 Deportivo Cali.
Deportivo Cali average 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 17 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Deportes Tolima average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 12 clean sheets and 12 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: S. Rodríguez leads Deportivo Cali's scoring with 11 goals and 3 assists; A. Parra leads Deportes Tolima's scoring with 9 goals and 5 assists.
Bookmakers make Deportivo Cali the favourites: Deportivo Cali 2.10, draw 3.30, Deportes Tolima 3.50 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.10 and under at 1.70. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.3 goals and recent form points to 2.3 goals a game.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | +16 | 34 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +2 | 26 |
Season stats
| Deportivo Cali | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 37 | 41 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 16 / 13 / 8 | 17 / 12 / 12 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 46 (1.2) | 54 (1.3) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 26 (0.7) | 42 (1.0) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 17 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 10 | 12 |
| Longest winning run | 5 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 3-0 | 4-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- S. Rodríguez 11 goals · 3 assists
- A. Parra 9 goals · 5 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:27. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.04 – 0.73 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 94/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cali win | 42.0% | 44.7% | 2.10 | -11.8% |
| Draw | 32.7% | 28.5% | 3.30 | +7.9% |
| Deportes Tolima win | 25.3% | 26.8% | 3.50 | -11.5% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 74.7% | 73.2% | 1.28 | -4.4% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 58.0% | 55.3% | 1.70 | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.7% | 71.0% | 1.33 | -29.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.0% | 44.7% | 2.10 | -45.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 74.0% | 55.3% | 1.70 | +25.8% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 89.7% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +12.1% |
| Both teams to score | 33.4% | 50.0% | 1.83 | -38.8% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 11 Nov 2026, 00:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.1 goals, their last 6 meetings averaged 2.3 goals and recent form points to 2.3 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Deportivo Cali
DWDWD
1.2 scored · 0.2 conceded per game
Deportes Tolima
LLLWW
1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
0 Deportivo Cali wins 3 draws 3 Deportes Tolima wins last 6 meetings
- Deportes Tolima1 - 1Deportivo Cali Primera A
- Deportes Tolima2 - 1Deportivo Cali Primera A
- Deportivo Cali1 - 1Deportes Tolima Primera A
- Deportes Tolima1 - 1Deportivo Cali Primera A
- Deportivo Cali1 - 2Deportes Tolima Primera A
- Deportivo Cali0 - 2Deportes Tolima Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:26. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
