Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama - Direct Win Prediction Today

Brazil: Serie A

Atletico Paranaense

Vasco DA Gama

November 4, 2026 at 23:30 · Arena da Baixada, Curitiba

Upcoming

Predicted Outcome Over 1.5 Goals

Odds 1.22

Result

Match Preview

Atletico Paranaense host Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A (Regular Season - 34) on Wednesday 4 November at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 33 games, while Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 38 points from 32. Atletico Paranaense have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 league games. Vasco DA Gama have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 league games. At home this season Atletico Paranaense score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per game; away from home Vasco DA Gama score 1.0 and concede 1.7. Atletico Paranaense have 4 players listed as out or doubtful, and Vasco DA Gama have 8 players listed as out or doubtful. In their last 6 meetings Atletico Paranaense won 2, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and 1 ended level. Our model makes Over 1.5 Goals the pick at 75% (odds 1.22).

Competition: Brazil: Serie A — Regular Season - 34
Kickoff: Wednesday 4 November 2026, 23:30
Venue: Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Referee: R. Abatti

Team news

Atletico Paranaense

Claudinho — Out (Knee Injury)
C. Teran — Out (Inactive)
Claudinho — Out (Knee Injury)
C. Teran — Out (Inactive)

Vasco DA Gama

Cauan Barros — Out (Leg Injury)
C. Cuesta — Out (Hip Injury)
A. Gomez — Out (Injury)
Mateus Carvalho — Out (Knee Injury)
Cauan Barros — Out (Leg Injury)
C. Cuesta — Out (Hip Injury)
A. Gomez — Out (Injury)
Mateus Carvalho — Out (Knee Injury)

League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	+40	73	WWWWD
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	+34	70	DWWWW
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	+6	57	WWWLW
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	WLLLW
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	LDLWD
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	+6	53	WDLWL
7	Atletico-MG	33	14	8	11	+5	50	LLWWD
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	+2	47	DDWLD
9	RB Bragantino	33	12	8	13	+4	44	WLDWD
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	+0	43	LDWWL
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	-10	42	WLLDL
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	-8	39	LLWDL
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	10	8	14	-9	38	LWLDW
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	LDDLW
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	-7	37	WWLDD
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	-10	37	LDWLD
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	-6	36	WLDLL
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	-5	35	LWLDW
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	-15	29	WLDDD
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	4	9	19	-34	21	LWLLL

Season stats

	Atletico Paranaense		Vasco DA Gama
	Home	All	Away	All
Played	16	33	15	32
Won	9	15	2	10
Drawn	5	9	5	8
Lost	2	9	8	14
Goals scored	27	50	15	40
Goals conceded	15	40	25	49
Goals scored per game	1.7	1.5	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded per game	0.9	1.2	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets	5	8	1	4
Failed to score	3	8	5	10
Biggest win	4-1		1-2

Top scorers

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists	Apps
1	K. Viveros	Atletico Paranaense	21	3	31
2	Pedro	Flamengo	18	6	33
3	Gabriel Barbosa	Santos	15	3	25
4	Kaio Jorge	Cruzeiro	12	2	26
5	Samuel Lino	Flamengo	11	9	32
6	Carlos Vinícius	Gremio	11	1	32
7	Luciano Juba	Bahia	11	1	29
8	Danilo Santos	Botafogo	10	2	25
9	Rene	Vitoria	10	1	25
10	J. Calleri	Sao Paulo	10	2	27

Highlighted: players from the two teams.

Odds

Our tip: Over 1.5 Goals — 1.22

Home Win (1)2.10

Draw (X)3.54

Away Win (2)3.25

Home or Draw (1X)1.33

Away or Draw (X2)1.68

Over 1.5 Goals1.22

Under 3.5 Goals1.41

Over 2.5 Goals1.75

Under 2.5 Goals2.06

Both Teams to Score1.61

Both Teams Not to Score2.20

Middle value across bookmakers, from API-Football. Odds change; check with your bookmaker.

Match Analysis

Model pick: Over 1.5 Goals — 75% probability (Moderate).

Home Win (1)57%
Draw (X)24%
Away Win (2)19%
Home or Draw (1X)81%
Away or Draw (X2)43%
Over 1.5 Goals75%
Under 3.5 Goals71%
Over 2.5 Goals51%
Under 2.5 Goals49%
Both Teams to Score50%
Both Teams Not to Score50%

Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.78 – 0.93 Vasco DA Gama. Probabilities come from Dixon-Coles team strengths and Elo ratings fitted on past results, recorded 3 Nov 00:09 before kickoff; they are estimates, not guarantees.

Form (last 5)

Atletico Paranaense

L 0–2 @ Gremio 30 Oct
D 1–1 @ Vitoria 24 Oct
L 0–2 vs Palmeiras 17 Oct
W 4–1 @ Chapecoense-sc 12 Oct
D 2–2 vs Atletico-MG 9 Oct

Vasco DA Gama

L 1–4 vs Flamengo 30 Oct
W 3–2 vs Corinthians 24 Oct
L 0–1 @ Sao Paulo 18 Oct
D 0–0 vs Remo 10 Oct
W 2–1 @ Botafogo 8 Oct

Team comparison

Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama

13League position

1.64

1.19Points per game

1.50

1.30Goals scored per game

1.20

1.50Goals conceded per game

24%

12%Clean sheets %

24%

31%Failed to score %

7Form points (last 5)

The longer bar is the better side for that measure.

Head-to-head

11 May 2026 · Serie A Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense
12 Sep 2024 · Copa Do Brasil Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Vasco DA Gama
30 Aug 2024 · Copa Do Brasil Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico Paranaense
27 Aug 2024 · Serie A Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico Paranaense
5 May 2024 · Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vasco DA Gama
25 Nov 2023 · Serie A Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco DA Gama

Data from API-Football, updated 3 Nov 2026, 00:09. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.